SEC OPINIONS - AS BIG AS IT GETS

 

Auburn and Alabama clash for the Western Crown, and perhaps a whole lot more...

 

       It would be a lie if I said I wasn't worried about the game next Saturday. Auburn fans are already calling the Tigers "the team of destiny".  You shouldn't take anything away from Auburn. They were not expected to do so well. Most pundits said 7 wins might be possible. The Tigers are going to be the top ranked One lose team in the BCS standing on Monday night. A lot of momentum is swinging toward Auburn right now. They are coming off a win that it seems that God himself caused. They are playing in Jordan-Hare, which is one of the loudest places I've ever been  The Tide will be playing a team that believes that they will win. Frankly, Alabama has looked flat the last two games.Perhaps they are looking forward to big game this weekend. The Tide has made it through this season with remarkable few injuries for a league as tough as the SEC.
  

 

 

Some tough quarterbacks for a new defense to contain    

 

  

     Bama has a few players nicked up. All were held out of the UTC game to avoid further problems. Arie K turned an ankle but is expected to be back. the Tide has been an excellent road team. In fact, they seem to play better away from Tuscaloosa. They have an experienced quarterback, great running backs, an offensive line which has improved greatly from the first game. They have the best big game wide receiver I've ever seen in the Crimson and White. The Tide has a middle linebacker that will track you down and punish you. The have a defensive line that has stopped the run all year. The linebackers are more than solid. The safeties are outstanding even though they lost on of the best in the SEC to injury. The corners are considered weak, but I wonder how much of that is because they are compared to the other parts of the defense.  They have also played against Zach Mettenburger, Johnny Manziel, Bo Wallace, and Logan Thomas. Any of those gentleman can beat you. 

 

Consider this...

     

  Here is an interesting stat: Alabama has given up only 102 points this season. By Alabama standards that might seem  like a lot. But the offensive schemes are so good now that is a really good number. 42% of those points were given up in one game. It was the second game of the season and was on the road, and Johnny Manziel is like no one I've seen in the SEC since Archie Manning. In the other ten games the tide gave up 60 points. That's less than one touchdown a game. That is incredible in today's college football. Since the TAM game the Tide as surrender only 50 points. Georgia State got a field goal.The backups gave up 5 touchdowns.  And this was done with a defense that had some major holes to repair after the NFL draft was over.

 

Playing with a new offensive line

  

     On the other side of the ball the Tide lost 4 of 5 starters from what is generally considered the best offensive line who ever suited up in college football. The offensive line proved they can dominate when the embarrassed tough boy LSU in a 38-17 win. Those 38 points were a season high for LSU. When you look at the offense you have to remember the times that Saban called off the dogs in order to not embarrass the opponent. Alabama does none of that ridiculous ringing up 80. They could have but didn't.

       There isn't a better big game player in the SEC than A.J. McCarron. Auburn hasn't played in a game this big. They beat a lackluster Georgia team for three quarters and then hung on for dear life when Georgia finally started passing the ball. We all know about the last second touhdown pass that was caused by a couple of egotistical defensive backs who had to try to intercept a pass. All they had to do was knock the ball away. Still, take nothing away from AU. They didn't quit. They didn't roll over like last season's team might have.
 

 

Auburn's defense is improved...

 

       Auburn's defense is getting better. Then the Georgia game exposed some real problems. Auburn can't play run defense and stop the pass. If they play to stop the pass they couldn't stop the run. But they play hard, mean, and determined. What they lack in talent they try to make up in effort. For the year the Tigers have give up 226 points this season. That surprising puts them as the 28th ranked NCAA team. Bama is ranked 1st in defense. The Tide is ranked 18th in scoring. Auburn is ranked 16th having scored 2 tenths more  per game than Alabama. Here's a number I love to follow. The Tide is scoring 28 more points per game than they give up. The number for Auburn is scoring 17 more per game That's a big difference in my opinion. At home the Tigers have given up 100 points. They given up 128 on the road. Bama has given up only 36. On the road the Tide has given up 66. 42 of those came in one game. to be fair to Auburn the Tigers gave up 41. Both teams gave up a ton of points to TAM but won.

 

 

Tiger, Tiger, running bright

 

      Even though the Tigers run from the spread they are a running team. They have averaged over 325 yards per game on the ground. The Tide is a a distance 28th in the NcAA at 245 per game. That says a lot or does it? Bama splits their passing and running equally. Auburn is about 90% on the ground. Bama has averaged 5.8 yards a carry. The Tigers have averaged 6.4. Advantage AU but not by much. Anyway you figure the numbers the Tigers can run the ball. Tre Mason is averaging 104 yard per game. The most astounding stat to me is that AU is averaging 73 plays per game. As hard as this is to believe that is only 66th in the nation. Alabama runs paltry 65 plays per game by comparison. The key to Bama's success will be long sustained drives to keep AU on the bench. I doubt that Auburn is going to run the ball as well as they have against lesser teams. But they'll get some yards, and probably break a long run or two. The AU backs are very, very good. Don't minimize that. Alabama transfer, Cory Grant, will get a chance to play his old teammates. He's the sweep specialist. The Tigers will put him in motion to build up a head of steam and then hand the ball to him. No doubt the Tide has the speed to deal with Grant. The Tide question is whether or not the Tigers can seal the corner to give him running room. One thing that you have to be impressed with in watching the Tigers play is the ability of their wide outs to make their blocks.

 

 

Three running plays...

     Auburn basically runs three plays. They use the read option to see if Tre Mason has some room to run. If the defensive end commits to stopping Mason, then quarterback, Nick Marshall, will take off like a rabbit at Green Track. He's good. He's been a major surprise, and is the trigger of the Tiger offense which is primed and loaded. The Tigers also run the sweep mention above off the same formation. No doubt they have a reverse to run off the formation and have already had a half back pass off reverse this season. Expect some surprises. The Auburn head man can't help his own self on  trick plays. Bama might have one or two as well, but it's more likely that it will be AU that tries them.

 

 

  

    For Alabama the equation is simple. Run the ball and win the line of scrimmage. Establish Yeldon and Drake and then throw the ball. The Tide can do it the other way around but it isn't what Saban would prefer. If Alabama's offensive line can open up some holes against the AU front they might break off some long runs. The weakest point of the Tiger defense is their linebackers. That's why other teams have found both run and pass success against the Tigers. The Tiger secondary is improving but still has some problems due to their talent and some key injuries.

      Marshall is an effective passer. He has a nice touch, and is generally throwing to wide open receivers because the safeties commit to stop the run. That means that Marshall sees a lot of man coverage on the outside. While Marshall doesn't have outstanding numbers in the passing game he has shown the ability to throw the ball down field vertically as well. The question is whether he had the ability to do so against a defensive line that will rush him, but really just try to contain him. While that game plan didn't work against Texas A&M it might be the ticket against Auburn and Marshall.