Thursday, August 30, 2012

Don 't expect Michigan to roll over...

Longest week of the year...

I'm not wearing a face mask for the game
          No doubt the week before the first Alabama game is the longest week of the year in my book. Maybe the week before a national championship game could seem longer to some. Not to me. It's game number one. All the what if's become what really is. Excitement with rise or fall on the basis of one game. If you are an Alabama fan you want your team to win the national championship. Anything else is not good enough. I've been reading a lot of articles from Michigan writers. Many believe that Michigan is step into a meat grinder this weekend. A few brave souls have predicted a Wolverine upset. Bama is ranked # 2 and Michigan is ranked # 8 in most football polls. It really wouldn't be much of an upset for #8 to beat #2 would it?  You have to give both programs kudos for scheduling the game. It will be a jump on other NCAA teams with a win. I know that Auburn and Clemson play the same day. Alabama and Michigan are games between two top tier programs. The Tiger tilt is big, but is more of a regional game.  All eyes will be on the State of Texas this weekend. So who wins, and why? This weekend is M Go Blue and Roll Tide Roll.  Thisd is big time college football. For game one of a season it doesn't get any bigger. When you yell for the Tide this weekend ybetter be loud. Everyone else in the nation will hope Michigan wins. I don't think they will be able to stem the Tide. Here's why.

Robinson is the key for the Wolverines...
     Slice it anyway you wish but Michigan will rise or fall on the arms and legs of a gifted quarterback. Robinson is likely the best player the Tide will play this season. He's not unlike Cam Newton in his ability to turn a game around on talent alone. Unlike Newton, Robinson is an amatuer finishing his college career. He runs at 4.28 forty according to a lot of reports. He is quick, and can find the open field in heartbeat. His passing has improved since his arrival to the Big House. In short, he is small but dangerous. He is a winner whose enthusiasm rubs off on his teammates.  He is over 8000 total yards in passing and rushing. His athletic ability to extend a play makes him a dangerous passer. Whatever defensive scheme the Tide decides to use it all starts with stopping Denard Robinson.

    Bama is like to play him in a similiar manner they used against Jordan "the thug" Jefferson. That is, don't over extend the rush and give him running room. Rush him hard and fast and force him to throw a little faster than he would like. Rumors abound about the status of suspended running back Fitzgerald Touissant. The heralded running back just plead guilty to a DUI. I expect him to play, or will the Blue and Maze decide to take the safe road and not worry about what is called the "Penn State" effect?  This suggests that the Big Ten will play all such issues close to the vest to help restore the tarnished image of the Big 10. One head coach won't do that. Urban Meyer will do whatever he wants to do in an effort win,  the devil be damned. I'd bet that Hoke will suit him up to win the game and take whatever heat he might get from the press about playing Toussiant. Bama will play a lot of great backs this season, but I'm not sure they'll play a team whose QB and RB combo will be any better. In addition, Roy Roundtree, the gifted wide reciever is back from knee surgery and appears to be ready to go according various Wolverine football reports found on the web.


Roundtree returns to the starting line-up
    Alabama is not going to completely shut down Robinson. He's too good for that to happen. The Tide needs to contain him from having a Heisman Trophy type night. There might be some reason to fear a big game from Robinson. Bama has lost several key players on defense. The Tide's corners are a concern. While corners are generally thougth to be pass coverage players, it is their ability to recognize and stop the run that is key. The new version secondary will get the toughest test of the entire season with Robinson. So the key for the Bama defense is to 1). exploit the relatively inexperienced Blue offensive line. 2). contain Robinson from having a career night 3). understand that while reckless abandon is exciting it has to take second place to holding your defensive position. Robinson may not be in your field of view when a play starts but that doesn't mean he won't end up being in the neighborhood.


Michigan goes big...

     Being a long time basketball fan I'm used to seeing a coach "go big" in some cases. I'm not sure I've ever really seen this in football. The Wolverine coaches are chosing to play their largest players across the defensive front. That means some starters get to watch from the sidelines. Alabama is reputed to have one of the best offensive lines in college football - at least in theory. I'll say this - Michigan better be big and quick. Big alone is not nearly enough. The size issue might work in Bama's favor if the Blue finds that their huge defensive lineman can't rush the quarterback. Maybe Michigan is acknowledging the importance of this game for the Big Ten. Michigan players have gone on record saying this is a game that will validate their return to the elite of college football. They will be juiced.

Bama will try to approach the game with a "business as usual" attitude. That has been the method Saban has used in the past. Don't think Alabama will come in flat. These early season blockbuster games have gone a long way to helping the Tide become the best of the elite in college football. A win over Michigan will do the same for this season as well. If you are a Tide fan and happen to be lucky enough be at the game you better bring your A game of cheering. The remainder of the country will be hoping that Michigan wins. The NCAA big wigs will be Wolverines for the night as well. After all, these guys scraped a perfectly good system to choose the national champion. I can't look back at the record of BCS champions and not make a solid case for any particular team being crowned champ.


Heisman Hype...

     Robinson will be taking the field with a lot of Heisman hype and hopes. What happens if Eddie Lacy runs for 200 yards, or AJ has a stellar night as a follow up of his demolishing LSU to help Bama win number 14. Could Saturday night be step one for number 15? I suspect it will be. I think that Bama's offensive line is going to dominate Michigan's new look defense. Though, replacing a lot of great players on crimson defense will not be easy. These new Tide players have more experience than the year after Bama whipped Texas. A similarity is that the secondary is replacing some great players. If you have any sense at all the fact that Michigan has a great quarterback and that the Tide has some inexperience in the secondary will raise a few red flags.
 
Those type of facts have never caused Tide fans to waiver in their expectations. Tide fans have success coded into their DNA. Don't expect a blow out. How about 24-14?