Friday, November 18, 2016

Here's a final four prediction...

 
       Now that the Chattanooga game is over and the Tide won, where does the win leave Alabama in their 17th national title run? Bottom line is that we'll know more next Saturday. 

       Everyone has an opinion. That includes me. In the end, we'll see 1. Bama 2. Ohio State 3. Clemson 4. Washington. That prediction comes gift wrapped by a stunning blowout of wannabe Louisville. The only question I had after watching that debacle unfold was how the Cardinals had lost only one game prior to last night's stomp down.

        'Bama has two games left in its bid for another championship run. (regular season)  Auburn, either the good team or the other one, is going to embarrass themselves on national television just like they did against Georgia. Then the Tide takes on Florida. Kudos to the Gators for beating LSU in Tiger Stadium. The SEC Championship will once again prove to the rest of the SEC that the Western Division is still the best. Alabama will show all concerned that the King still sits on his throne. The Tide seems to defy that bard's belief that "heavy is the head who wears the crown."  It's a process as we have come to understand. I think it's fair to assume 13 other teams in the SEC understand that as well.  I think if Alabama beats Auburn, the Selection Committee would be hard pressed not to include the Tide even if they lose in Atlanta. Look for a 3-0 finish to the "regular" season, and then two more wins after that. The safer bet is for the Tide to beat both Auburn and Florida just to be sure. Should the Tide lose to Aubie and beat Florida for the outright conference title, there would be no doubt the Tide advances. There will be a legitimate claim for the Gators to be included. The have two losses but would be SEC Champs. I don't think Florida can beat Alabama, however.

      Ohio State has been running up scores against the so-called Big Ten Opposition. Their blemish? Penn State knocked off the Buckeyes. The real question is what happens if the Nittany Lions actually win the Big Ten? Ohio State might be a much better team now, but on the one day that mattered Penn State beat them. Given the Selection groups stated desire to give deference to Conference Champs, how can Committee say "but" to the Nittany Lions?  I think in the long run it still seems like Ohio State will be somewhere in the final mix. Here's the interesting question to me. What if Penn State actually is the Conference champ and Ohio State whomps Michigan? Will the Selection group take two Big Ten teams? They could. That would be termed "talking out of both sides of your mouth". That's something the Committee has done in the past.

     Clemson is a perplexing team to me. They have a great quarterback, as all Tide fans can remember. They also have a top shelf running back who seems to have gotten lost in the shuffle. Either the Tigers have lost their hearts or their defense is just not championship caliber. If you look back some of the wins the Tigers have recorded were suspect. The close win over Troy and Auburn comes to mind. Their best win was over Louisville. Well, that's what I'd argue if I was Dabo. Bottom line is that something about the Clemson Tigers just doesn't pass the sniff test. I don't think that Clemson can beat Ohio State. Still, look for the Tigers to make the final cut.

    So that leaves one team to round out the field. Will it be Penn State or maybe Wisconsin? Will the committee take a two loss conference champion over a very good one-loss team? Or will they opt for something akin to  political correctness? My guess is that Washington will fight their way through the remainder of their games and be the PAC 12 Champion? That matchup in Seattle with Washington State could be a stunner, and surely will be one of the most interesting games on the West Coast that weekend. How did the Huskies lose to Southern Cal? The Tide beat the Trojans by almost fifty points. The Committee can justify almost anything and make some sense in doing what they decide. Whatever their decision it will stink to high hell with equal clarity.

   After watching the Huskies play the Trojans, I think Alabama could beat ring up another 50 plus points on the purple dogs. Is there going to be a one-loss team representative from the Big Ten or a two-loss Big Ten Conference Champ? I'm going to believe the Committee has backed themselves into a proverbial corner with all their impetus on Conference Champions. I thought their goal was to pick the top four teams to play for the Dr. Pepper Trophy? You can almost sense the aroma of hypocrisy brewing around the water cooler right now. We all get to sit on the fifty-yard line to hear their decision.