Monday, January 23, 2012

Five Big Games...

Alabama has a stretch where 13-6 could become 18-6...


The season rests with these two guys
     It's possible in my opinion. Let's talk about why - While there are no easy road games the Tide has 3 trips where winning is possible. Start with South Carolina on Wednesday night. Then the Auburn Tigers after a couple of home games. That is always a tough game. But the Tide has a good chance. The final game in the next five games is LSU in Baton Rouge. The Tide has Ole Miss at home, and Arkansas comes calling this weekend. In the abstract, I'd pick the Crimson and White to win each of these games. If Coach Grant can get the team without a loss then Alabama will go to the NCAA. I also think that Bama has a better than average chance to win the final six games. We get Florida, the much improved Tennessee Vols, the Aubies, State, and finish up with Ole Miss in Oxford. The great thing about the last six games is that they will help our RPI rating and SOS. Remember that the Gators and Vols are at home.


What's wrong with Mitchell? 
     That is question number one among fans and I'd guess the coaches as well. My opinion is that Mitchell's overall lack of basketball skills is always subject to slumps. He could easily explode like an atomic bomb. People say he is bi-polar. Ha-Ha. Quit saying that because he's not bi-polar. He is a high energy player with higher expectations for himself. He's in a funk. South Carolina is exactly the type game where he can utilize his gazelle like speed. Mitchell is a good shooter. Not a great shooter, but he can get on some good streaks. He is a much underrated defender than you think. He's a decent ball handler. He is a time bomb ready to go off again. Ease up on the kid. He's a solid citizen, and a great young man.


What's wrong with Alabama?


They will turn it around 
     Nothing. You might remember that very early on before the season began I said that replacing Chris Hines and Scenario Hillman would be tough to replace. It was true then and it is clear that regardless of how much talent our Freshman bring they cannot replace two seniors who were an invaluable part of last season's team. Hines was the junk yard dog of the team. He did the dirty little things a team needed. Hillman was the best defender we had. You cannot just throw in a couple of freshman in the mix and expect the same impact. I wrote that it would be very difficult for the Tide to repeat 25 wins. Expectations were so high such observation just were not believed. You ask Anthony Grant if he could have one more player on his team right now he'd say Chris Hines.You cannot underestimate the pump up the volume that Hillman brought to the floor. 


    This team isn't as good as last year's team - yet.   It might end up as good. I just don't think it will really be much better though than last years team. They can be good. If the Tide catches fire and gets some breaks they might surprise in the NCAA Tournament.  If Bama could show how good their three point shooters can be it would help. A lot of that poor shooting has to do with kamikaze defense. The players get a little leg weary and the shooting isn't as good. Here's how good they are right now. There isn't a team that will play in the Big Dance, regardless of seed who wants to play Alabama. So the  obvious question is -


What does Alabama do to turn the season around? 


     First and foremost, they need to keep the in your face defensive mentality. That is character and identity of the team. They simply can't let up on the defensive intensity. I also believe that in the Vandy game they were getting tired prior to the game. Regardless of what Coach wants they are humans subject to all the physical struggles any team endures. Only the Tide goes harder than any team in the SEC. There is always going to be a game or two where fatigue comes into play. In the Vandy game once the adrenalin got flowing the team played hard. 


Utilize the depth the team has built...


. I am surprised the Rodney Cooper has played in the last two games. I don't think there is an issue between the coach and player. Cooper has a tremendous upside. He was also Bama's best defender on the press. You probably notice our press is not quite as effective as earlier in the year. Some of that is quality of competition and some is not having the long reach of Cooper. Of all the freshman Cooper has found it tougher to find some steady ground.


Freshmen are freshmen for better or worse...


     Fans simply have to acknowledge that when your main rotation includes four freshman things are going to haywire at times. Levi has been steady if not spectacular. He has a lot of spectacular in him and it shows his commitment to Coach Grant to back off his offensive game. He has very quietly put together an All Freshman SEC season in my opinion. Lacey is getting there. I think it is pretty obvious that Grant made a decision to play Lacey and Releford together and take his lumps for doing so. Allowing Lacey to play himself into SEC basketball shape has hurt a times, but his flashes of greatness show that Grant is thinking long term. That's fine with me. He needs five seasons in my opinion. 


Surprise, surprise, surprise...
The Tide will sink or swim on defense
That's fine with me...
     I think an article written earlier in the season recounted the story of going over to Atlanta with a coach to watch a player. On the other team was giant of kid. He kept dropping in jump hooks like they were coming out of a machine. First thing I did was call Alabama and tell them about him. They knew him already. I should have known but it never hurts... At any rate Jacobs as been a pleasant surprise. He had the potential from the day he hit campus but his progress has really helped the team. I guess if you go up against Green everyday you improve or die.


     Moussa Gueye wasn't supposed to play this season. The 7 footer is back taking baby steps to get in shape and make sure his ACL will stand up to the rigors of SEC play. He got a couple of rebounds against Kentucky and was 3-4 from the line. If you watched him you had to notice that he has great basketball instincts. One illegal pick sent a Kentucky guard doing a land version of the back flip. That was pretty funny. Gueye was smiling. Grant wasn't.


     Andrew Steele was finished. His career was over. He was essentially passing out water bottles and helping the freshman with some individual defensive drills. He kept himself in shape. Lo and behold he got the green light to play and his defensive intensity is a profile in courage considering where he was just a short time ago. He's getting more minutes. He could be a starter but he seems to relish being the 6th man. He is hard nosed and one great human being. I know that he is a favorite of Grant who espouses his virtues to the remainder of the team.


The team leaders... 


You are only as good as the point
     Jaymychal Green is letting the game come to him. I think there was some friction (not personal) with Mitchell. They were each over stepping their assigned job descriptions so to speak. This is the senior's year to shine. Grant has given him the green light to do what he wants to do on offense, and JG has turned into the best interior defender in the SEC.


     When we analyse the Tide you have to do it in a certain order. Fans complain that we aren't making enough three point baskets.Grant would say we lead the league in three point defense. Lacey isn't shooting enough. Grant would retort that as his defense improves he can shoot more often. Same with Levi and Nick. You have to recognize the same defensive intensity on the floor as the football team showed. The difference is talent and experience level. You have to start backwards in breaking down this team's abilities. Unlike football, you have to play two ways and you don't have a little get together between plays because hoops is one really long play. We are about where I thought we would be. We are on the edge of being very good. How good? How good can Releford be for the rest of the season. We will be as good as Releford becomes. He appears poised to soar. We will finish the season as good as we can be given the experience level. We could be very, very good. 

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