What if Grant returns...

Tide should be much improved regardless...

    

  Truthfully, none of us know if Anthony Grant will return next. I've been told he is coming back. Everything seems to be subject to change in college sports though.  One thing will be clear - next season we will have enough talent to a lot of games. It won't be easy replacing Releford.  Players like him are rare. Give Justin Coleman some time and he'll prove to be a more than worthy replacement. However; he won't be Trevor. We might never see a point guard with his skill set again in Tuscaloosa.

     So for the sake of argument lets say that Grant does return next season. What can we expect? I don't think we'll be an Elite Eight team but we might make it through a couple of NCAA rounds if a couple of things go right. There are three areas that the Tide will have to address to become an NCAA player again.

1.  Justin Coleman can speed up the winning process if he can adjust to Division One ball. He has the talent. He has the foot speed, the ability to shoot well and score. They aren't the same. He can break the press. He is a wizard with the ball. He sometimes gets a little out of control, but players like Coleman always push their limits. You can back off some much easier than speed it up.

2.  Alabama needs to shoot a higher percentage from the outside.  Releford has been better than good, and Cooper has shown signs of life lately. No other Tide player is an outside threat. Norris, Mitchell, and Coleman are all threats. They are all big time threats. Mitchell is downright scary, and Norris won't find many players or zones he can't shoot over. Coleman will pull up on the break and shoot the three with accuracy. If all three adjust quickly it will be the first time that Alabama will have four big time shooters on the floor at the same time.

3.  Will Michael Kessens be the answer inside?  The short answer is yes because our inside game is so weak right now, almost anyone would be an improvement.  Kessens can play with his back  to the basket. Or he can show some decent range outside facing the basket. But, he's only 215 or so and is really a power. The icing on the cake would be that Taylor will get much stronger and find some type of drop step shot. Kessens could move down to the power forward.  My bet is that Jacobs be the first big off the bench if Taylor doesn't really improve. Otherwise Kessens may be forced to play the post.

      As with any team there are some sub-plots. What is going with Levi Randolph and Rodney Cooper?  Stated above it seems that Copper may be coming out of his funk. He has been steady under boards this season but his shooting has been woeful at times. Who knows what to say about Randolph. He no longer starts, he is tentative, and makes a ton of mental errors. Is his benching some type of message? I don't think there has been talk of that but you have to wonder. His defense has suffered as well.

     Sub-plot two is how is Grant going to alter his defense next season. (and all college coaches for that matter) The new rule regarding getting a little close to your friends has killed the Tide's perimeter defense. Lately, the Tide has been playing a pretty good zone defense. If this rule is going to stay the same a lot more teams will go zone and outside shooting will be even more important. Scoring is up 8% all over the NCAA. That's one reason why Alabama's allowing more points. The other reason is that the interior defense isn't as good. Taylor is changing that. Florida couldn't beat the Tide inside when they had the ball so they had to resort to the three ball. Imagine how it would effect Tide opponents if Alabama could shoot the ball as well as Florida. Alabama played Florida to a draw in the first half. The got beat by less than ten on a top three home  floor. I still believe that Grant is a first rate coach. If you can't recruit what good does that matter?  Better players are coming but the Tide hasn't found a inside banger in my opinion.That's why the loss of William Lee to UAB was such a perceived loss.

A GRATEFUL YOUNG MAN...

D.J. PETTWAY MAKES A STATEMENT...

      I don't know Pettway. Never shook his hand. I'm not even sure I would recognize him if I saw him. But I think his statements of late about coming back to Alabama speak volumes about his character. I have no idea exactly what he did a year ago or why. That was then and this is now.

    What Pettway did was obviously wrong. What Pettway had to endure to get back to Alabama would make a great movie. Have you ever seen a person so sincere and remorseful about an event that almost ruined his life? Pettway has undergone quite a transformation due to an encounter with heavenly remorse. I'm not talking church here. I'm not even talking about faith. I'm talking about what happens when a person understands the difference in getting caught and feeling that type of remorse, and the other kind. You know the kind that causes a man to look in the mirror and find the culprit of all his problems. When Pettway is finally able to tell his story I bet he'll say something about the ability to be the man he is today wasn't possible  without staring down the person he once was. His story is one of the most poignant stories I've read in a long time. I bet this man turns out to be a leader and winner both on and off the gridiron.

   Sometimes a second chance is the greatest gift a person can receive in life. You can waste that chance or do what Pettway did. I admire him for that. We all should. No person is unworthy of redemption. I hope I get to meet  him one day.

Destiny is a two edged sword by the way...

Tigers fall short in final BCS National Title Game

     I'm not here to celebrate FSU beating Auburn. It's all pretty inconsequential  if Alabama isn't playing for the national title. I've been telling all my Auburn friends that this 'team of destiny' mantra was just plain silly. If you believe in destiny, which I don't, it doesn't mean or even imply that the end result will be good.  Ask Napoleon if that's true or not. The truth of the matter is that Auburn had a marvelous run this season and I don't think the most ardent Alabama fan would disagree. So let me ask my Auburn friends this - if you believe it was your destiny to win the national title then doesn't that imply that someone or something beyond your teams' blood, sweat, and tears was responsible for the season?  Was it your destiny to win a national title, or was it your destiny to have your still beating heart torn from your chest in a last minute drive?
 

      I think believing in destiny takes away from what the Auburn football team actually accomplished, but moreover I think it tells us something about the mental state of Auburn fans. Is it true that AU fans must believe that some supernatural force or being is in charge of their football team? I believe that's truly the case. Alabama fans don't seem to believe in all that destiny non-sense. Feeling entitled is not the same as destiny. Believing in destiny is knowing you are not entitled, and hoping God or something descends from the clouds to give you a helping hand. Not only is believing that meaningless but is a slap in your team's face. I don't recall FSU or Alabama saying it was their destiny to win a national title. FSU might be led by an egotistical self-centered quarterback who has convinced himself he is beyond the laws us mere mortals, but at least he believes it was his own abilties which  saved FSU. 'the team got on my back and rode me  to the National Championship'.  Honestly, doesn't anyone think that a class or two in public speech might save the embarrassment named Jameis Winston was last night in post game interviews.

     The national media might be standing in line to consensually get in bed with Winston but I think he showed his true self last night. I didn't know if he was a Flamingo dancer or football player with those roses tucked behind his ear secured by a big head. Celebrate as you wish, but for heaven's sake at least speak the King's English from time to time. Coach Bryant said "act like you've been there before." FSU was the best team according to the score board. The difference was that the FSU defense was only slightly better than the Auburn defense, which has been terrible all season.  Kudos to Ellis Johnson for his attack mode approach the game though.  In retrospect, it is something that Alabama would have been better served in doing when they played Auburn. Of course, FSU had some  pretty decent cornerbacks.

     You have to hand it to Gus Malzhon. He turned a laughing stock into a bully with a gimmick offense and a crummy defense. I personally don't think there were any truly great teams in the NCCA this season. There were lots  of good ones and that parity led to some exciting games. All this high scoring might continue for another couple of seasons but defensive coordinators will figure out a way to stop the smoke and mirrors. Remember the wishbone? Unstoppable until coaches figured out a way to stop it. The no huddle hurry up offense may look unstoppable but its has a shelf life like anything else. Alabama had a good defense, but the corners were young and inexperienced. I think if Alabama had a couple of NFL quality corners on the field the new hurry up offense would have been stopped. I think that is why the Tide coaches are so concerned about signing quality corners.

     All things considered you have to give Auburn its due. I didn't think the Tigers would beat FSU, but if they played next week I might think differently. The Tigers drive to retake the lead late in the game was big time. Unfortunately, the their defense was starting to understand that their destiny might be a little different than the home fans thought. Auburn's run of miracles. luck, heavenly intervention ended because the real destiny of their team rested on the shoulders of a poor defense. And only Auburn controlled that themselves.

Bama loses to Oklahoma

Always a little something missing from this team    

    

Honestly, there has been something not quite right with this year's Alabama football team. The offensive line never reached a championship level. The Defensive backs were just not up to Alabama standards. The were too many long runs, to many long passes, and two many third downs given up all season. Despite all that the Tide scored 31 points last night. You'd think that would have been enough to win any game the Tide played. That doesn't appear to be true anymore. At least with the talent level the Tide had on defense this season it's true.

    Cyrus K may be a first round NFL pick. I don't see it. T.J. Yeldon proved that even a gifted back can appear lackluster behind a average line. The loss of Anthony Steen hurt. The place kicking was pretty good except when it mattered most. The players and coaches gave it a hundred percent all season but the talent level just wasn't there in my opinion. The loss of so many early departures to the NFL finally brought the Tide done a notch. I hate that A.J. McCarron got torn and tattered in his final game. He is the best quarterback who has ever played football at Alabama.  In terms of ability,  character, and leadership he stands in a class with very few members. Life isn't always fair. Life wasn't fair when A.J. nearly died as a five year old.  He survived that accident.  He'll survive the Sugar Bowl game. We will not remembe him because of the bowl game. There are too many high points to recall beyone that one game.

    The coaches did perhaps their best coaching job in covering up glaring shortcomings on this team. Great isnt' always measured in undefeated seasons. I think this team played to the max of their potential. Throw in three injuries to defensive starters and you have a defense that struggled at times. The loss of Sunseri seems to have really hurt. I'd think if you were a defensive back you be looking at Alabama  as a place to get instant playing time. Some welcome news was that Hootie Jones is back in the fold for the Tide. Bama also got Tony Brown yesterday. That is another 4 and 5 star addition to an already unbelievable recruiting class.

    You have to be excited about the play of one Derrick Henry. The Florida native gave warning that next season is going to be a stunner if decent line play evolves. My guess is the line is going to be much better. Hungry young lineman won't be willing to just wait their turn. They will play, take their lumps, and then become solid players. 

     You don't replace C.J.Moseley but the Tide has more than enough to cover up for his marvelous career. Players like Rueben Foster will step forward. The quarterback sitution will be an old fashioned bar fight. Someone will emerge. The coaches will manage him and let him develop.  This was a bad ending for Alabama this season. The world is not over.  The sun came  up. I'd rather have Alabama's pool of talent than most team. For whatever reason this team seemed to run of seven cylinders instead of eight. There have been some lessons learned, perhaps the fans won't be so full of unrealistic expectations.

SEC OPINIONS - Auburns says they will beat Bama

How Auburn believes they will beat 'Bama...

         (Before going any further let me thank Donald Allen Kelly for giving me his insight in this article. He knows more about football any person I've ever known.)

     

Nick Marshall is the trigger man for the Tigers

Auburn is going to try to beat 'Bama', something no team has done this season, by controlling the line of scrimmage. Okay, that's nothing new. The question is how are they going to do it. Auburn believes their offensive line is better than Alabama's defensive front. They may or may not be that good. The main point here is that they honestly believe they are. They will set out to prove that believe by handling the ball to Tre Mason on the quarterback read. Mason is a superior running back. He is probably the best back the no one ever pays attention to. Mason will always attempt to run between the tackles but has the ability to bounce the ball outside.

            

Tre Mason - running back - 1153 yards on 208 attempts. That is an average of 5.54 yards per carry. His long run of the season is 53 yards. He has 17 touchdowns this season. He is tough, runs low the grown is an very rarely brought down on initial contact. He is probably the best running back in the game. He is certainly the most effective running back in the game.

If Auburn is able to run Mason inside the will then use the read option and try to seal off the defensive ends to allow Nick Marshall to run the ball. Auburn is very good at executing their offense They use this basic play 95% of the time. In the games where the Tigers have run up big numbers the offensive line has done  the job. The line and blocking back has done an excellent job all season long in doing this. If you watched the Tigers play Ole Miss and Tennessee (and others) you have to be really impressed with the execution. Don't think for one minute that Auburn in not capable of moving the ball, having some explosion plays, and score a lot of point.

            Nick Marshall - the trigger man. For someone who has played quarterback only two seasons it is amazing how well he has played. He is smart. savvy, and a great athlete. He's not Cam Newton. I'd call him Newton lite. His ball skills on the read option are outstanding. He is a winner. Don't think he can' run the offense or throw the ball. He can do both. He is particularly dangerous on long passes.  Auburns big, strong, and tall receivers are a lot like Mike Evans, particularly Sammy Coates. He is a big time, first round draft type player. When Marshall throws the ball you have know that Coates is his first option. The only thing that Marshall hasn't done this season is throw the ball when he is forced to do so. He is not as accurate in medium routes. He is good enough to keep drives alive however when he has time to throw the ball. Auburn wide outs are excellent blockers down field. The Tiger full back and H back are great blockers. The open holes for Mason and are sometimes lead blockers for Auburn to seal the corners. They also pull to lock for the Tiger power sweep.

 

          The Auburn Defensive  - Auburn is going to play 10 defensive linemen through out the game. Auburn wants their best linemen fresh in the fourth quarter. The names stand out. Dee Ford who is a better passer than anyone Alabama  has right now. Gabe Wright, the guard is a better than average player, and LaDarius Owens constitute a great pass rush. Auburn has given. Auburns defensive line has improved as the season progressed. Auburn fans believe the Tiger Defensive line will handle the Tide on Saturday. They are counting on the homefield crowd which gives the Tigers a tremendous advantage. A.J. McCarron needs to hit crossing patterns and short passes to keep Auburn from playing 8 men in the box. The Tigers are supremely confident their corners can cover any 'Bama receiver one on one. We'll see. Apparently they have forgotten about the forth quarter. The Tigers have lost a couple of defensive backs to injury earlier in the season. Ellis Johnson, the defensive coordinator, says he is happy with defensive backfield. If the Tigers a clearly visible it would be with the linebacker. The linebacker play is the main reason Auburn has give up loads of yardage on interim pass routes and running backs who make it into the second level.

Auburn Keys to Victory

• Establish Mason inside so the Tigers can exploit the corners
• Outplay Alabama's offensive line forcing the Tide to pass more often
• Try to get Marshall running on the corners
• Pass when the Tigers want to and not when they have to pass
• Put pressure on McCarron when passes to help the linebackers and DBs.
• Get off to rocket start and try to rattle the Tide.

 

SEC OPINIONS - Scarbinsky is wrong on this one

KEVIN MISSED ON THIS ONE...

            I've know Kevin Scarbinsky for longer than either of us would like to admit. The first time I met him was at a media basketball game. It was at UAB. Incidentally, he is a really good basketball player. He's an even nicer man. His writing is first class. If you knew him you'd expect nothing less. The problem that Kevin has had from day one at the News is this bizarre penchant he has for telling the truth. That's not popular in Alabama. Sometimes fans just don't want to hear the truth. That goes for Bama and Aubie. The truth is often a stranger in the world of fandom. This week will be no except. The pride and arrogance of some fans will  prove this to be true. The stupidity of other fans will verify that. And finally the game will be played. Some will celebrate and others will cry. I think Kevin is mistaken in his conclusion.  He is being truthful in his opinion. Being truthul and being the truth are not the same thing. At least he had the courage to say what he believes. Kudos for that.


        Kevin said he believes a Bama loss will be the most crushing in Saban's  coaching career. I don't agree. Crushing? There could be no doubt about that. Every defeat in Tideland is crushing. A loss would keep Alabama from winning a third consecutive BCS national championship. What I disagree with him is in the word most. An Auburn win won't even be their most important win. That win over Oregon was the most importnt win in their school history. It better be because if you are a Tiger and saying this is the most important win ever you'd have to admit that beating Alabama is more important than winnng a national title. I do think a lot of Auburn fans believe that to be true.  

         Do you know how unlikely it would be for any coach in America to be in a position of coaching to be where Nick Saban is today? We don't know. No coach has ever done this in here in the BCS era. I think that Saban would be disappointed. I really think he'd blame himself for overlooking some tiny detail.. He might spend weeks trying to determine exactly what he did wrong. He wouldn't blame the players. He'd just go home and double his efforts for next year. He isn't going to hide in the basement. His place in college football history is already secure. He is a Hall of Fame coach just waiting for induction. Do you think if Gus Malzhan wins the game he is going into the hall of fame? 

        Winning a third straight national title would be nice. It would be historic.It would make Saban proud. But don't think that the man's ego will rise or fall on one game regardless of how important it seems to be. There are lots of emotions being invested by the fanbase of both schools. I think Alabama going to win because they have a better team. The better team seems to always win this game. I don't think this year's Bama team is the greatest that Saban has put on the field. But Saban knows how far this year's team has come from first game againt Virgina Tech. Remember that one?  It was the game that sent grown men and women screaming in the streets the sky was falliing.Therapists probably doubled their income the next week. Auburn is said to be a team of destiny. A team's destiny can be good or bad. Alabama is a team of destiny as well. Good or Bad? Destiny is a  range fate.I'd rather be team of preparation.  We'll know late Saturday afternoon. Let me ask this question?  Have you ever seen anything crushed? I can't imagine Nick Saban being crushed to the point he can't get up. When something or someone is crushed it is over. Saban? Nah, he's the type of guy that can survive a lighting strike. And he'd have a plan to ensure it wouldn't happen to him in the  future. For me, I'm going with Never Again sign that still hangs in the Bama locker room. Alabama is destiny. Good enough to win and bad enough to knock your teeth out.  I'd much rather be a team that runs off the field knowing you didn't need blind luck to win. Auburn beat Georgia on a lucky play. Alabama doens't need luck.

SEC OPINIONS - AS BIG AS IT GETS

 

Auburn and Alabama clash for the Western Crown, and perhaps a whole lot more...

 

       It would be a lie if I said I wasn't worried about the game next Saturday. Auburn fans are already calling the Tigers "the team of destiny".  You shouldn't take anything away from Auburn. They were not expected to do so well. Most pundits said 7 wins might be possible. The Tigers are going to be the top ranked One lose team in the BCS standing on Monday night. A lot of momentum is swinging toward Auburn right now. They are coming off a win that it seems that God himself caused. They are playing in Jordan-Hare, which is one of the loudest places I've ever been  The Tide will be playing a team that believes that they will win. Frankly, Alabama has looked flat the last two games.Perhaps they are looking forward to big game this weekend. The Tide has made it through this season with remarkable few injuries for a league as tough as the SEC.
  

 

 

Some tough quarterbacks for a new defense to contain    

 

  

     Bama has a few players nicked up. All were held out of the UTC game to avoid further problems. Arie K turned an ankle but is expected to be back. the Tide has been an excellent road team. In fact, they seem to play better away from Tuscaloosa. They have an experienced quarterback, great running backs, an offensive line which has improved greatly from the first game. They have the best big game wide receiver I've ever seen in the Crimson and White. The Tide has a middle linebacker that will track you down and punish you. The have a defensive line that has stopped the run all year. The linebackers are more than solid. The safeties are outstanding even though they lost on of the best in the SEC to injury. The corners are considered weak, but I wonder how much of that is because they are compared to the other parts of the defense.  They have also played against Zach Mettenburger, Johnny Manziel, Bo Wallace, and Logan Thomas. Any of those gentleman can beat you. 

 

Consider this...

     

  Here is an interesting stat: Alabama has given up only 102 points this season. By Alabama standards that might seem  like a lot. But the offensive schemes are so good now that is a really good number. 42% of those points were given up in one game. It was the second game of the season and was on the road, and Johnny Manziel is like no one I've seen in the SEC since Archie Manning. In the other ten games the tide gave up 60 points. That's less than one touchdown a game. That is incredible in today's college football. Since the TAM game the Tide as surrender only 50 points. Georgia State got a field goal.The backups gave up 5 touchdowns.  And this was done with a defense that had some major holes to repair after the NFL draft was over.

 

Playing with a new offensive line

  

     On the other side of the ball the Tide lost 4 of 5 starters from what is generally considered the best offensive line who ever suited up in college football. The offensive line proved they can dominate when the embarrassed tough boy LSU in a 38-17 win. Those 38 points were a season high for LSU. When you look at the offense you have to remember the times that Saban called off the dogs in order to not embarrass the opponent. Alabama does none of that ridiculous ringing up 80. They could have but didn't.

       There isn't a better big game player in the SEC than A.J. McCarron. Auburn hasn't played in a game this big. They beat a lackluster Georgia team for three quarters and then hung on for dear life when Georgia finally started passing the ball. We all know about the last second touhdown pass that was caused by a couple of egotistical defensive backs who had to try to intercept a pass. All they had to do was knock the ball away. Still, take nothing away from AU. They didn't quit. They didn't roll over like last season's team might have.
 

 

Auburn's defense is improved...

 

       Auburn's defense is getting better. Then the Georgia game exposed some real problems. Auburn can't play run defense and stop the pass. If they play to stop the pass they couldn't stop the run. But they play hard, mean, and determined. What they lack in talent they try to make up in effort. For the year the Tigers have give up 226 points this season. That surprising puts them as the 28th ranked NCAA team. Bama is ranked 1st in defense. The Tide is ranked 18th in scoring. Auburn is ranked 16th having scored 2 tenths more  per game than Alabama. Here's a number I love to follow. The Tide is scoring 28 more points per game than they give up. The number for Auburn is scoring 17 more per game That's a big difference in my opinion. At home the Tigers have given up 100 points. They given up 128 on the road. Bama has given up only 36. On the road the Tide has given up 66. 42 of those came in one game. to be fair to Auburn the Tigers gave up 41. Both teams gave up a ton of points to TAM but won.

 

 

Tiger, Tiger, running bright

 

      Even though the Tigers run from the spread they are a running team. They have averaged over 325 yards per game on the ground. The Tide is a a distance 28th in the NcAA at 245 per game. That says a lot or does it? Bama splits their passing and running equally. Auburn is about 90% on the ground. Bama has averaged 5.8 yards a carry. The Tigers have averaged 6.4. Advantage AU but not by much. Anyway you figure the numbers the Tigers can run the ball. Tre Mason is averaging 104 yard per game. The most astounding stat to me is that AU is averaging 73 plays per game. As hard as this is to believe that is only 66th in the nation. Alabama runs paltry 65 plays per game by comparison. The key to Bama's success will be long sustained drives to keep AU on the bench. I doubt that Auburn is going to run the ball as well as they have against lesser teams. But they'll get some yards, and probably break a long run or two. The AU backs are very, very good. Don't minimize that. Alabama transfer, Cory Grant, will get a chance to play his old teammates. He's the sweep specialist. The Tigers will put him in motion to build up a head of steam and then hand the ball to him. No doubt the Tide has the speed to deal with Grant. The Tide question is whether or not the Tigers can seal the corner to give him running room. One thing that you have to be impressed with in watching the Tigers play is the ability of their wide outs to make their blocks.

 

 

Three running plays...

     Auburn basically runs three plays. They use the read option to see if Tre Mason has some room to run. If the defensive end commits to stopping Mason, then quarterback, Nick Marshall, will take off like a rabbit at Green Track. He's good. He's been a major surprise, and is the trigger of the Tiger offense which is primed and loaded. The Tigers also run the sweep mention above off the same formation. No doubt they have a reverse to run off the formation and have already had a half back pass off reverse this season. Expect some surprises. The Auburn head man can't help his own self on  trick plays. Bama might have one or two as well, but it's more likely that it will be AU that tries them.

 

 

  

    For Alabama the equation is simple. Run the ball and win the line of scrimmage. Establish Yeldon and Drake and then throw the ball. The Tide can do it the other way around but it isn't what Saban would prefer. If Alabama's offensive line can open up some holes against the AU front they might break off some long runs. The weakest point of the Tiger defense is their linebackers. That's why other teams have found both run and pass success against the Tigers. The Tiger secondary is improving but still has some problems due to their talent and some key injuries.

      Marshall is an effective passer. He has a nice touch, and is generally throwing to wide open receivers because the safeties commit to stop the run. That means that Marshall sees a lot of man coverage on the outside. While Marshall doesn't have outstanding numbers in the passing game he has shown the ability to throw the ball down field vertically as well. The question is whether he had the ability to do so against a defensive line that will rush him, but really just try to contain him. While that game plan didn't work against Texas A&M it might be the ticket against Auburn and Marshall.