Bama is a 1 point favorite but...
Does it seem to you that more and more sports pundits, talk show hosts, beat writers, and TV announcers have flushed 'Bama down the drain? It does to me. Everyone from Danny Sheridan to Gary Danielson have either stated or hinted that Alabama doesn't have a chance this Monday night. It's odd that the so called experts are now picking the Bengals even though the Tide is a very slight favorite.
There are plenty of reasons to choose the Tigers:
1. It is a home game for LSU, and don't give me any of this neutral field stuff. I do think 'Bama will be 40% of the crowd if we can buy that many tickets.
2. LSU has the better and more experienced quarterback. Jefferson pulled the game out of the fire in Tuscaloosa in my opinion. McCarron has all the talent in the world. Will this be the center stage for his coming out party? We better hope so.
3. There are continued rumors that Alabama's defensive backs are injured to the degree they won't be at full speed. Milliner, Menzy, and Barron have all been observed nursing hamstring injuries or painful bruised ribs. Barron finally was able to do all the individual drills today, and Menzy and Milliner were limping a couple of days ago. In a game where 100% is mandatory and 110% would be welcomed this causes Tide fans to worry. I think this is a bigger story than Kirby Smart is telling the press.
4. Eddie Lacy is simply hurt and not even close to full speed. This "turf toe" injury has been going on for 3 months now. All athletes will tell you it is a painful and slow healing injury. A 80% Lacy will be helpful, but Jalston Fowler doesn't raise expectation levels does he? I think he'd do much better than most people say, and personally would have no problem with his playing. It seems that every big game produces a hero whose legend is born. Why not Fowler?
5. Bama can't figure out the option. Georgia Southern ran the ball well against 'Bama. But I haven't forgotten just how effective the option was against the Tide in game one. Some of that may have been more preparation for Lee. This time around you can bet that more time has been spent on Jordan Jefferson. Gary Danielson continues to tout the upcoming contribution of Lee on Monday night. Could we be so lucky?
7. Officiating. No, I'm not joking. Big 12 officials calling the Championship Game? Wasn't it the Big 12 and the rest of the nation that said Alabama didn't deserve a chance to play. Would Big12 officials referee in LSU's favor? I hope not but you have to remember where they will get their pay checks next year. How stupid in this unique event that the top SEC crew isn't calling the game. Stupid and Stubborn.
8. The kicking game is going to go in the favor of LSU. That's a no brainer. But let's take a closer look at that aspect. I don't blame Cade Foster for missing three killer lenght field goals. What a thankless job. But the way the national average for made field goals for over 40 yards is just over 30%. Foster isn't out there because the job is easy. He's out there because those field goals are downtown launches. I would take Marquis Maze (when healthy and by all reports he is) along with Mr. Clothes Line any day of the week. This is particularly true on kickoff returns. The one glaring (as in search lights beaming in the night sky) is the perplexing problem that Foster has in kicking into the endzone. If LSU gets to start play at the 35 instead of the 20 Bama is behind the eight ball. It was the kicking game that kept 'Bama from winning earlier this year. I'm not talking missed field goals as much as punts not fielded, poor kickoffs, and poor decisions by the coaching staff regarding when and when not to punt. Please note that Coach Saban hasn't asked my advise.
9. Everyone seems to think that LSU has more tenacity than the Crimson and White. By that I mean stripping touchdown passes away from tight ends, being so uptight that wide open receivers were not just missed but not even seen. Example was Brandon Gibson standing alone and waving his arms that he was left uncovered.
10. Miles has more guts than Saban. Look, I wouldn't pick a fight with Nick Saban if he had a knife and I had a machine gun. There is something about Miles that seems to exude the love of living on the edge. Whether it is reverses, onside kicks, faked punts, and eating grass it seems that Miles loves to actually be at the game. Coach Saban looks like an expectant father waiting for the baby to be born so he can go home. Miles looks like there isn't anywhere else he'd rather be than in a big game.
Those are some "valid" reasons for people to think that Bama can't win. I have no idea if any of the list has any validity at all. I noticed that AJ has dropped the beard and now goes from inexperienced to looking like a 12 year old. Talk about baby faced. I researched and found 41 games that teams played twice in a similar scenario. The winner of the first game won 21 games, and the loser 20. But those included pro games. I could only find 12 college games that fit the same criteria. In those games the loser won 8. Granted, I didn't spend 24 hours in a library looking for every game. But 4 hours on the internet at least give us some idea. All I know is that as the game gets closer everyone is starting to believe that Bama can't win. There is one bunch of people that continue to complain about the rematch. That is the LSU football team. So what do you think that means? I believe I know, don't you?
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There are plenty of reasons to choose the Tigers:
1. It is a home game for LSU, and don't give me any of this neutral field stuff. I do think 'Bama will be 40% of the crowd if we can buy that many tickets.
2. LSU has the better and more experienced quarterback. Jefferson pulled the game out of the fire in Tuscaloosa in my opinion. McCarron has all the talent in the world. Will this be the center stage for his coming out party? We better hope so.
3. There are continued rumors that Alabama's defensive backs are injured to the degree they won't be at full speed. Milliner, Menzy, and Barron have all been observed nursing hamstring injuries or painful bruised ribs. Barron finally was able to do all the individual drills today, and Menzy and Milliner were limping a couple of days ago. In a game where 100% is mandatory and 110% would be welcomed this causes Tide fans to worry. I think this is a bigger story than Kirby Smart is telling the press.
4. Eddie Lacy is simply hurt and not even close to full speed. This "turf toe" injury has been going on for 3 months now. All athletes will tell you it is a painful and slow healing injury. A 80% Lacy will be helpful, but Jalston Fowler doesn't raise expectation levels does he? I think he'd do much better than most people say, and personally would have no problem with his playing. It seems that every big game produces a hero whose legend is born. Why not Fowler?
5. Bama can't figure out the option. Georgia Southern ran the ball well against 'Bama. But I haven't forgotten just how effective the option was against the Tide in game one. Some of that may have been more preparation for Lee. This time around you can bet that more time has been spent on Jordan Jefferson. Gary Danielson continues to tout the upcoming contribution of Lee on Monday night. Could we be so lucky?
7. Officiating. No, I'm not joking. Big 12 officials calling the Championship Game? Wasn't it the Big 12 and the rest of the nation that said Alabama didn't deserve a chance to play. Would Big12 officials referee in LSU's favor? I hope not but you have to remember where they will get their pay checks next year. How stupid in this unique event that the top SEC crew isn't calling the game. Stupid and Stubborn.
8. The kicking game is going to go in the favor of LSU. That's a no brainer. But let's take a closer look at that aspect. I don't blame Cade Foster for missing three killer lenght field goals. What a thankless job. But the way the national average for made field goals for over 40 yards is just over 30%. Foster isn't out there because the job is easy. He's out there because those field goals are downtown launches. I would take Marquis Maze (when healthy and by all reports he is) along with Mr. Clothes Line any day of the week. This is particularly true on kickoff returns. The one glaring (as in search lights beaming in the night sky) is the perplexing problem that Foster has in kicking into the endzone. If LSU gets to start play at the 35 instead of the 20 Bama is behind the eight ball. It was the kicking game that kept 'Bama from winning earlier this year. I'm not talking missed field goals as much as punts not fielded, poor kickoffs, and poor decisions by the coaching staff regarding when and when not to punt. Please note that Coach Saban hasn't asked my advise.
9. Everyone seems to think that LSU has more tenacity than the Crimson and White. By that I mean stripping touchdown passes away from tight ends, being so uptight that wide open receivers were not just missed but not even seen. Example was Brandon Gibson standing alone and waving his arms that he was left uncovered.
10. Miles has more guts than Saban. Look, I wouldn't pick a fight with Nick Saban if he had a knife and I had a machine gun. There is something about Miles that seems to exude the love of living on the edge. Whether it is reverses, onside kicks, faked punts, and eating grass it seems that Miles loves to actually be at the game. Coach Saban looks like an expectant father waiting for the baby to be born so he can go home. Miles looks like there isn't anywhere else he'd rather be than in a big game.
Those are some "valid" reasons for people to think that Bama can't win. I have no idea if any of the list has any validity at all. I noticed that AJ has dropped the beard and now goes from inexperienced to looking like a 12 year old. Talk about baby faced. I researched and found 41 games that teams played twice in a similar scenario. The winner of the first game won 21 games, and the loser 20. But those included pro games. I could only find 12 college games that fit the same criteria. In those games the loser won 8. Granted, I didn't spend 24 hours in a library looking for every game. But 4 hours on the internet at least give us some idea. All I know is that as the game gets closer everyone is starting to believe that Bama can't win. There is one bunch of people that continue to complain about the rematch. That is the LSU football team. So what do you think that means? I believe I know, don't you?
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